Unnecessary
and impossible probability calculating.
Hawking,
in an effort to dramatize and to express the “dangers of
technologies,” says that intelligence may not be completely beneficial to survival, and gives the idea of a 1 in 1,000,000 chance of a
nuclear war that devastates life. He then ups the ante, tells us to
imagine humans over 100,000 years, and says we are now looking at the
very scary odds of 1 in 10 that humans will experience a nuclear war.
Nuclear
war is bad, we should try to avoid it.
The
capacity to make a nuclear weapon should become easier, and we should
develop ways to make even deadlier weapons. But trying to create
probability of human use of such weapons seems a rather futile
process. I think this may edge into something I complain about Joshua
Greene (Moral
Tribes, recommended). We can boil the position down to something like we
have natures and a social world that is immutable.
I
have faith that in 300 years (say maximally) that we will greatly
overhaul inter-nation relationships. Any body of people who have the
hardware to create an arsenal of nuclear weapons (though this will
get cheaper), will fully accept that inter-nation hostility, and
particularly hostility to the point of war or nuclear war, will be
unthinkable. On a global scale we will put social safeguards against
nuclear war, as well as safeguards of say the arise of a Nazi-Germany
like state (or I guess an United States during the 1940's).
The
threat that madmen may release a few nuclear weapons may be more real
for longer, but this would not constitute nuclear war. Furthermore,
detection capacities (probably including invasive monitoring tools)
should also continue to expand, which negate the lone crazies to some
extent.
To
do what I complain about, it seems like there is a much lower
possibility of nuclear war within the next decade than the
possibility of nuclear war during the decade of the 60's. Though some
(fools) think we are entering a new cold war, there is not good
reason to think nuclear war will be that serious of a threat going
forward, unless something dramatic changes.
Such
a complaint probably sums up what I think of the show. Overly
dramatic, cool graphics, low narrative sound so that you have to pump
up their theatrical music, some good general information.
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